Harsh political reality slows climate studies despite extreme year

Published by in Impacts, North America, Observed, Policy, Science, United States on January 23rd, 2012

This past year, 2011, witnessed a number of extreme weather events in the United States that far exceeds numbers from previous years.  On average, the United States experiences three to four weather disasters a year that incur costs in excess of $1 billion per event.  In 2011, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) identified a dozen extreme weather events with a total cost that will exceed $50 billion.  These expensive climate calamities include flooding in the Mississippi River Valley, extreme droughts in Texas, wildfires in the Southwest, and increased tornado activity in the Midwest and Southeast.  While the extreme events themselves were not unprecedented, the large number of extreme events in a given year was unusual.  Researchers have predicted this rise in extreme weather event frequency as an anticipated result of climate change. The past few years have shown a statistical rise in extreme climate events that corroborates these predictions both in the United States as well as internationally.

In 2011, NOAA appealed to Congress for a reorganization of the department to better provide climate forecasts for businesses and the general public alike.  NOAA has recently been overwhelmed with information regarding future climate risks from many interested parties from insurance companies to local governments.  Unfortunately, Republicans in the House of Representatives blocked this effort that would have cost the government no extra money on the grounds that such a reorganization would set the stage for an inundation of climate change propaganda.  At a time when the federal government is slashing funding for many public projects, an already overburdened NOAA will be hard-pressed to satiate the demand for future climate information, let alone develop the ability to effectively predict extreme climate events into the future.

Nick Hudson

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As permafrost thaws, scientists study the risks

Published by in Causes, Future, Observed, Science on January 18th, 2012

 

Permafrost

Source: Josh Haner/The New York Times

There is a growing concern that increased thawing of permafrost due to warming temperatures in the Arctic has the potential to release large amounts of carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere.  A recent estimate suggests that Arctic permafrost contains twice as much carbon as the entire atmosphere.  If significant amounts of these greenhouse gases are released, it could cause a positive feedback, intensifying global warming.  Methane, in particular, is an especially efficient greenhouse gas, and its potential release is of even more concern to scientists than the carbon dioxide that would be released simultaneously. Preliminary projections suggest that Arctic permafrost could eventually become an annual source of carbon, contributing an amount equivalent to 15-35% of current annual greenhouse gas emissions from human activities.  However, it is believed that if emissions are brought under control now, contributions from thawing permafrost could potentially be much less. Scientists have declared the need to understand this problem as a major priority, recognizing the large amount of uncertainty that still exists.  Experts’ most significant worry at this point is that once the carbon in permafrost begins to break down, it will be impossible to stop.

Gary Monitz

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Australia plans huge marine reserve in Coral Sea

Published by in Agriculture and Food, Impacts, Policy, Sector Specific on January 13th, 2012

 

The Coral Sea is home to diverse wildlife, including sharks and tuna. Source: AP

The Australian government has proposed to create the world’s largest marine reserve in the Coral Sea.  This proposal would set aside 989,842 square kilometers (382,180 square miles) in order to protect the large degree of biodiversity in this region.  The Coral Sea reserve would protect the area east of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park through imposing new fishing limitations as well as banning the exploration for oil and gas. This protected zone would practically double the size of the current largest marine reserve in the world around the Indian Ocean’s Chagos Islands and would encompass two existing marine reserves, the Coringa-Herald National Nature Reserve and the Lihou Reed National Nature Reserve.  The proposal must undergo a 90 day consultation period before the Australian government will be able to establish this marine reserve.  There have been concerns on both sides about this reserve, from the commercial fisherman who have voiced that they would require larger areas designated for fishing to activists who have pointed out that key reefs and spawning grounds will not be included in the reserve region.  The consultation period is set to conclude on February 24, 2012.

Nick Hudson

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Time for a Vacation? Climate Change and the Human Clock

Published by in Impacts, North America, Observed, Science on January 13th, 2012

Acadia National Park in Bar Harbor, Me. Source: Michael Appleton, NY Times

A recent study, discussed in this article from the New York Times, has found that National Park attendance has shifted by an average of about four days over the past 30 years, most likely in response to climate change.  The study was published in the International Journal of Biometeorology, comparing temperatures and attendance records from 1979 to 2008 for nine parks experiencing significant temperature changes.  It is believed to be the first study to examine behavioral response to temperature changes over a long period of time.  To assess whether or not temperature changes were truly responsible for this shift, these parks were then compared with parks which have experienced minimal temperature changes, all of which saw little to no change in the average timing of visitation. Biologist Dr. Lauren Buckley suggests that human behavioral shifts are comparable to those of other species, suggesting that people are already subconsciously changing their behaviors even though many still do not believe in global warming.

Gary Monitz

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Climate change insight gleaned from Yellowstone wolves

Published by in Biodiversity and Ecosystems, Impacts, Latin America, Science on January 5th, 2012

Grey wolves in the Yellowstone Park. Photograph: Mark Miller / Alamy

A recently published article in Science reports (detailed here) that scientists who have been studying the reintroduction of grey wolves into the Yellowstone National Park have developed a computer model that predicts how these wolves will respond to climate change. This model allows researchers to gauge how the grey wolves will respond behaviorally and genetically to changes in the environment.  The hope is that this model will act as a template that can be applied to determine how other animals might respond to climate change and will thus allow scientists to predict which animals will be most resilient to climate change and which animals will be most prone to the threat of extinction.  The model takes into account a number of variables including the growth rate, the relative fertility and the life span that is then used to predict if the wolves will be able to adapt, both behaviorally and genetically, quickly enough to avoid the threat of extinction.  However, the model still has large room for improvement as such factors as changes in prey populations and augmenting infectious disease risk are necessary to develop a more robust model.  In any event, the model will provide a baseline for scientists to employ in order to predict animal populations into the future.

Nick Hudson

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